On the grounds that May 2010′s local elections were on the same day as the General Election – so no subjective weightings required, I thought I would apply those council results to the new parliamentary boundaries (click here for the spreadsheet).
In seats, the last election’s results look like
Labour – 32 (down 6)
Conservative – 31 (up 3)
LibDem – 5 (down 2)
(Not sure how this compares to the Guardian’s initial analysis presuming homogeneous voting across constituencies)
You have to be a bit careful with local election results because some parties don’t stand candidates in every ward, some areas have strong local political issues that lean to a split local/national vote and some candidates have personal followings. One of the Conservative seats, Hornchurch and Upminster, is in my spreadsheet as a Residents Association seat simply because 19,000 of Angela Watkins’ conservative voters voted for the RA in local elections. For this reason I have classed it as a “battleground” seat as there is a vehicle there if there were an alternative Tory candidate.
In terms of defining the battleground for the next election, I’m assuming a small LD to Con swing and a larger LD to Labour opportunity. All the details are in the spreadsheet but my take on it is this.
Labour gains from Conservative
Conservative gains from LibDem
Kingston & Surbiton
Sutton & Cheam
Teddington & Hanworth
Brentford and Isleworth (Lab challenge Con)
Chingford and Edmonton (Lab ch. Con)
Croydon and St Helier (Lab ch. Con from 3rd place)
Eltham (Lab ch. Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (Lab ch. Con)
Hendon (Lab ch. Con)
Wanstead and Woodford (Lab ch. Con)
Hornchurch and Upminster (if Residents stand against Con)
Hampstead and Kilburn (3 way marginal but likely Lab victory)
Bermondsey and Waterloo (Lab ch. LD)
Hornsey and Wood Green (Lab ch. LD)
Interestingly, there seems to be a new Labour seat of Stratford without a natural incumbent unless Lyn Brown steps in, with Stephen Timms and Mike Gapes both shifting westwards to avoid Mike being left without a seat.
I’m sure the party managers will already have their thinking caps on.