Boundary changes: London

On the grounds that May 2010′s local elections were on the same day as the General Election – so no subjective weightings required, I thought I would apply those council results to the new parliamentary boundaries (click here for the spreadsheet).

In seats, the last election’s results look like

Labour – 32 (down 6)
Conservative – 31 (up 3)
LibDem – 5 (down 2)

(Not sure how this compares to the Guardian’s initial analysis presuming homogeneous voting across constituencies)

You have to be a bit careful with local election results because some parties don’t stand candidates in every ward, some areas have strong local political issues that lean to a split local/national vote and some candidates have personal followings. One of the Conservative seats, Hornchurch and Upminster, is in my spreadsheet as a Residents Association seat simply because 19,000 of Angela Watkins’ conservative voters voted for the RA in local elections. For this reason I have classed it as a “battleground” seat as there is a vehicle there if there were an alternative Tory candidate.

In terms of defining the battleground for the next election, I’m assuming a small LD to Con swing and a larger LD to Labour opportunity. All the details are in the spreadsheet but my take on it is this.

Labour gains from Conservative
Enfield North
Ilford North
Paddington
Stanmore

Conservative gains from LibDem
Kingston & Surbiton
Sutton & Cheam
Teddington & Hanworth

Battleground
Brentford and Isleworth (Lab challenge Con)
Chingford and Edmonton (Lab ch. Con)
Croydon and St Helier (Lab ch. Con from 3rd place)
Eltham (Lab ch. Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (Lab ch. Con)
Hendon (Lab ch. Con)
Wanstead and Woodford (Lab ch. Con)
Hornchurch and Upminster (if Residents stand against Con)
Hampstead and Kilburn (3 way marginal but likely Lab victory)
Bermondsey and Waterloo (Lab ch. LD)
Hornsey and Wood Green (Lab ch. LD)

Interestingly, there seems to be a new Labour seat of Stratford without a natural incumbent unless Lyn Brown steps in, with Stephen Timms and Mike Gapes both shifting westwards to avoid Mike being left without a seat.

I’m sure the party managers will already have their thinking caps on.

  • swatantra

    Is Angela Watkinson still around Upminster? I’ve not noticed her in the Commons all year.
    What about A Hilton stepping intoStratford, more representaive than Gapes or Timms.
    I’m sure quite a few MPs will be standing down at the next election, or should be asked to stand down, and give somone else a chance.
    ‘Stratford’ would be a good All BAME Shortlist seat, if we had them.

    • John Reid

      Watkinsons still around, Gapes will probably stand again although his constituency doesn’t take in Stratford ,If anything some of Dagenham would go to ilford South.

      • swatantra

        A deciding factor in any forthcoming elections is the intervention of the Co-operative Party.
        You may have noticed that a lot more MPs and Assembly Members are adopting the Lab & Coop label, by joining the Co-operative Party. Even Ken has joined. He will be fighting for London on the Lab & Coop ticket. Many of the policies in the London Manifesto are cooperative based,which is all a good thing.
        There was a time when Barking Dagenham and Ilford were actually part of Essex. If they returned to Essex Labour might actually have a chance of gaining control at County Hall.

  • treborc

    I suspect with the employment situation in the country not to many people will be willing to give up a seat to save people like balls or Cleggie, I suspect Cleggie and a few of his mates will be given seats in the house of lords so they can continue to be ministers much as Mandy did.

    I can think of a seat in Scotland which should be empty by now that’s Brown the bloke we are told is working for his constituency, sadly that’s impossible he on the speaking route in American I suspect telling them he was second in command behind Blair and it was him that saved the world.

    • swatantra

      I’m sure Dave will find a good safe Tory seat for his mate Nick.

      Surprisingly Brown is still regarded with some respect in Scotland where Labour held on in 2010.
      I’m sure History will look more kindly on Brown as having kept his head and come up with solutions in a moment of absolute global panic and disaster. The Financial Crisis was Brown’s finest hour.

    • Anonymous

      There are good and bad MPs and Gordon’s not amongst the worst. Don’t forget that for a generation the party has been telling putative MPs that their role is to do nothing more than shut up and vote with the whip.
      Maybe the guy’s doing more in his constituency too that we know nothing about. It’s important we don’t just buy the right-wing demonisation uncritically.

      • treborc

        Sorry it’s simple if he is now an MP then get back to work, work for an MP is in Parliament not sitting at home or working at a second job on the speaking circuit.

        The fact is Brown is now earning Between £70,000 to £100,000 speaking in places like Saudi Arabia and the far East, sadly he should be in the UK Government not swanning around earning money speaking which would be classed as a second job, something we remember Labour moaning about when Tories did the same, fact Blair left to go and earn his fortune then Brown should do the same.

        • swatantra

          Instead of moonlighting, Brown has a duty to turn up, sit on Committees and stand up and speak in the House. Otherwise he might as well step down and let somebody else have a go. Perhaps Brown could tell us how exactly he fulfills his role as MP.
          Alec Douglas Home though PM for 1 year was gracious enough to help Heath and even came back in a supporting role as Foreign Secretary. Heath mistakenly stayed on as an MP after being PM just to spite Thatcher. Wilson Callaghan Major and Blair called it a day and went on to make money from their celebrity status.

          • treborc

            Well said Swatantra we cannot go on like this, we will be holding hands next…..

  • treborc

    Gosh I would be expecting something on here about the TUC conference, the banking crises and many other areas, come on people put something up we can really talk about

    • LesAbbey

      Come on Robert, you do something;-)

      • Anonymous

        How……

        • LesAbbey

          Robert this is from Alex’s first post on the new site.

          This is by no means complete, but it’s a view and I’d be interested in your thoughts. Just leave a comment, or if you want to write articles yourself, pop me an email on alexhilton@gmail.com and I’ll sort you out with a username and password.

          • Anonymous

            I noticed it yesterday and I’ve sent an email….

  • Anonymous

    I noticed it yesterday and have sent an email.

  • Anonymous

    Dam sad to see another mining accident in my area with one man being found dead and another three missing, it’s less then a mile from me.

    • LesAbbey

      Sorry to hear that all four died.

  • Anonymous

    Seems I’m not the standard required for writing articles, I’ll be around but I’m off back to labour list.

    good luck